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	Y2K WILL CERTAINLY HAPPEN ! Battalion Chief Don Schoenbein, Emergency Operations Manager, Englewood, Co. As the year 2000 approaches, so does the possibility that computer systems around the world may not recognize the new millennium date and fail, causing widespread and catastrophic failures. Due to the interconnectedness of systems globally, the possibility exists for a world- wide event that could cause major interruptions in some services. Opinions on the effects of the "Y2K bug" range from "much ado about nothing" to "the end of civilization as we know it".
With all the hype and hyperbole surrounding the rollover into the new millennium and the problems that may occur, emergency preparedness would appear to be a difficult and monumental task. Regardless of whether the New Year, New Century and New Millennium comes in with a whimper or a wham, emergency service providers should be familiar with the type of problems that may occur. Potential infra- structure service disruptions (electricity, telecommunications, and transportation) present the greatest threat from the Y2K bug. Everything from watches to power plants may be susceptible if they have a date function in their operation. In an effort to minimize or eliminate problems, businesses and governments, both locally and globally, have spent billions of dollars to identify, test and remediate potential problems in their operating systems. As part of the testing process, many systems have already moved their clocks forward into 2000 and are operating in Y2K, most without problems. In addition, several ‘critical dates’ have already passed with few problems occurring. Regardless of which side of the "potential effects of Y2K" debate proves to be most accurate, the responsible position for Emergency Managers and communities is to be prepared for "the worst case scenario". Fortunately, the type of problems that Y2K could cause have been experienced before and when they occur, emergency services are usually the first and quite often, the most heavily involved in the events that result. For example, here in Colorado, a major winter storm can effect all aspects of the infra- structure and population. Electricity and phone service are often interrupted due to downed lines. Roads are often impassable or severely compromised by snow, ice and debris. People are often stranded or isolated without heat, light, communications or transportation, often for long periods of time and the event often covers a wide area, effecting many jurisdictions and occasionally, many states. In California the most severe threat may be an earthquake. In Florida or Hawaii it may be a hurricane. Every area has a ‘worst case scenario’ and they probably have established responses and contingency plans to minimize the effects of those potential disasters. The only difference with Y2K is the magnitude of possible problems may cover an area larger than a major winter storm, an earthquake or a hurricane. However, most jurisdictions can only rely on their resources in a wide-area disaster and must be prepared for that possibility.
	Community Emergency Response Teams are an important part of those plans and responses. In fact, it was these types of major events that identified the need for CERT’s. Wide area events that can quickly overwhelm emergency response resources created the need to have citizens prepared to help themselves, their neighbors and their community.
Fortunately, CERT trained citizens are already better prepared for the "worst case scenario" than most of the population, whether the problem is caused by Y2K, a winter storm, an earthquake or a hurricane. The self-sufficiency and emergency response skills taught in the CERT program are universal and offer the best chance for survival regardless of the situation. CERT members can also assist in increasing preparedness awareness in their neighborhoods. A basic preparedness "train the trainer" program designed for CERT members to take back into their neighborhoods could increase the chances of survivability for a greater number of people than many jurisdictions could reach through conventional programs. Something as simple as distributing pamphlets on Family Preparedness available through the American Red Cross, or prepared locally and tailored to your demographics, could have a great impact. The "T the T" program could be provided as a refresher course for current members while preparing them to do "the most good for the most people". The potential for service interruption is always present. Although Y2K has provided the date for a possible disaster and a focus to raise preparedness awareness, the focus should be placed on life skills and not incident skills. Problems that are possible from Y2K could occur at anytime, from any natural or man-made event. The preparations made for Y2K related problems will also work for any event. Don’t wait until December to start preparing, something could happen tomorrow. Adequate preparedness takes time, planning, practice and resources. Anticipate the "worst case scenario". If you are prepared for that, anything less should be easy. The only thing that is certain regarding Y2K is that it will happen. Y2K will arrive on January 1, 2000. What will happen when the clock strikes midnight will continue to be debated until it happens. If there are problems, CERT members will be ready.

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